UAAP Season 72 Preview: UP and NU
Sunday, 5 July 2009 7,396 Views / 38 Comments
National University Bulldogs
2008 Record: 2-12 (8th)
Additions: Cabaluna, Denmark; Donahue, Francis; Hermosisima, Kokoy; Malanday, Larry; Roy, Ronald; Singh, Ajeet; Terso, Joseph
Subtractions: Aguilar, Raymond; Asoro, Edwin; Berry, Mark; Catamora, Chris; Dela Cruz, Christopher; Galapon, Aaron; Garcia, Jessey; Jahnke, Jonathan
Holdovers: Jerome Tungcul; Kevin Batac; Michael Luy; Elmer Fabula; Mervin Baloran; Jewel Ponferrada; Marion Magat; Mark Manito
Background: After a promising Season 70 campaign that saw the NU Bulldogs finish with an impressive 6-8 record (including a key victory over Ateneo that helped pave the way for La Salle’s title run), Season 71 was supposed to be another step towards respectability for the Sampaloc-based cagers. Yet despite a virtually intact core that featured Edwin Asoro, Jay Jahnke, Raymond Aguilar and Jewel Ponferrada, the Bulldogs instead regressed badly and finished dead last with only two wins to show. But as is the norm for NU, one of those wins was over a contender, in this case eventual third placer FEU, a result that eventually impacted the Final Four match-ups.
Asoro capped his brilliant UAAP career by leading his team in scoring (13.5), rebounding (9.2), steals (1.1) and blocks (2.0). He also achieved the rare distinction of not missing a single game in his five UAAP seasons. The downside is he will go down as one of the most talented players to never have played in the Final Four.
Overall, the Bulldogs were second-to-last in point production with 64.6ppg, ahead only of Adamson’s 64.6. On defense, they gave up 10 more points (74.6), sixth-best in the league. The gap could have been narrower – and the losses fewer – if only they had shot better from the free throw line. While they ranked third overall in free throw attempts (322, or 23 attempts per game), the Bulldogs were the worst free throw-shooting team, hitting only 58.7% of their freebies.
The problem for NU was confidence and consistency, epitomized by a bench that at times appeared overwhelmed. A number of their losses were by double digits, and in many of them, the players simply imploded. And for all his wondrous talents, Asoro was error-prone (he actually led the league in turnovers per game) and never really developed into a go-to guy who could pull his team together at crunch time.
Key Changes: Asoro will be missed, no doubt. Aguilar (9.7ppg), Jahnke (8.7), and Jessey Garcia (6.8) rounded out NU’s top four scorers, and since none of them will be back this year, Coach Manny Dandan will be basically overhauling his starting five.
New faces include guards Ajeet Singh, a transferee from San Beda, and ex-Bullpup Joseph Terso plus big men Denmark Cabaluna and Francis Donahue. Ronald Roy, Kokoy Hermosisima and Larry Malanday round up the list of rookies. With the loss of Jahnke and Chris Catamora in the backcourt, Singh and Terso will probably see the most minutes.
But the biggest change for this team came off the court. The SM Group bought a majority stake in NU and poured serious money into the school’s sports program. And almost overnight, NU suddenly became a major force in the recruiting wars. Last October, over 300 hopefuls showed up for a series of tryouts. In previous years, the coaching staff was lucky if a fourth of that number tried out. The team now also tools around in a brand-new air-conditioned bus, and their practice facility in the Mall of Asia complex is a major, major upgrade over their old, well-worn gym. Clearly, better times are just around the corner.
Outlook: All told, this is a very young and inexperienced team. With three playing years under his belt, guard Michael Luy is already the most veteran player. Yes, they’re that young. The major prizes nabbed in those series of tryouts are still serving residency, so it looks like another year of taking lumps, rolling with the punches and gaining experience.
Dandan will be the first to admit he doesn’t exactly have a powerhouse lineup. But he actually likens this team to the one he had in 1998, when he had a bunch of young players named Froilan Baguion, Jeff Napa and Gilbert Neo who would form the core of the team that would go on to the Final Four three years later. And with funding no longer a problem, the school hopes it won’t take three years this time around to make it back to the post-season. At least that’s the plan.
Forecast (Chances): I see the Bulldogs occupying the cellar again this year, and truth be told, a 0-14 season isn’t too farfetched. But I think they’re good for a couple of wins, and I’m betting one will once again come against a contender that will once again shake up the Final Four seedings.
University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons
2008 Record: 3-11 (6th)
Additions: Gingerich, Moriah; Gomez, Carlo; Juruena, Mark; Padilla, Alvin; Reyes, Mikee
Subtractions: Agbayani, Jayfelson; Dela Victoria, Czarlo; Fortu, Don Carlo; Pajela, Ronald; Sorongon, Paul
Holdovers: Astorga, Kevin; Braganza, Arvin; Co, Woodward; De Asis, Miguel; Gamboa, Michael; Hipolito, Dionisio; Lopez, Mark; Maniego, Francis Miguel; Marfori, Santos Andrew; Reyes, Martin John; Sison, Magi King
Background: After a rousing opening-day victory over NU, the Maroons’ first in the UAAP since September 2006, everyone got all giddy and hopeful for a decent showing in UP’s centennial year. Then reality set in and the team went on to lose 11 of its last 13 games.
The areas for improvement are obvious. The Maroons were the league’s worst defensive team last season, giving up 77.5 points per game. Not surprisingly, they were also last in two key defensive statistics: steals and blocked shots. They also gave up the most points off turnovers per game (18.9).
On offense, the statistics weren’t any better. UP shot the worst from the field, hitting only 36.1% of field goal attempts, and had the fewest fastbreak points per game at 5.7 despite playing with three guards most of the time. The Maroons also didn’t take care of the ball, giving up 19.9 turnovers per contest. Only NU had a higher average.
But it wasn’t all bad news. The Diliman dribblers were third overall in assists per game (15.1), behind only UE (15.5) and eventual champion Ateneo (15.4), with Braggy Braganza registering the highest individual assist-per-game average (4.1) league-wide. And despite having a small line-up, UP was also third in rebounds per game (43.6). With a team filled with shooters, it also wasn’t a surprise that the Maroons averaged the most perimeter points per game (29.6).
Jay Agbayani was the team’s leading scorer, averaging 11.7 ppg. While this was more or less a result of his being the most veteran player, it also spoke to UP’s lack of reliable scorers, since Agbayani is clearly not a very skilled offensive player. The next two top scorers were shooter Martin Reyes (11.4) and forward Woody Co (9.1), both of whom were wildly inconsistent and shot only 52% and 57% respectively from the free throw line.
Key Changes: With only Agbayani graduating and a host of recruits coming in, Coach Aboy Castro cleared up roster space by cutting Ron Pajela, Czarlo Dela Victoria, and Paul Sorongon. Additionally, shooter Don Fortu suffered an ACL injury last year and has yet to fully recover, so he’s sitting out this season as well. But it’s not like any of these guys will be terribly missed. For one thing, none of them is over six-two, and on a height-challenged team like UP, they were natural choices to get pink-slipped. For another, well, they weren’t exactly lighting it up. Pajela (2.4ppg) became expendable after Mikee Reyes came onboard. Dela Victoria (1.1 ppg) could shoot threes all right, he just couldn’t do it often enough. Sorongon (6.5 ppg) hit a couple of big shots to seal a win over Adamson, but other than that, he was plain inconsistent.
Taking their places are guard-forward Moriah Gingerich, power forward Carlo Gomez, forward Mark Juruena, guard Alvin Padilla, and point guard Mikee Reyes. Gingerich stands around six feet and hails from Faith Academy. He can play the two and three spots and is a pretty good defender. Gomez was elevated from Team B and should provide help underneath, although he’s not exactly the second coming of Nestor David. Padilla is a transferee from San Beda who can play both guard positions, while Reyes is a blue chip recruit out of La Salle Greenhills who impressed during the summer leagues. Personally, though, I think Juruena was the biggest catch. This kid stands around six-three and was the UAAP juniors MVP last year, and he can flat out play. I expect him to be among the top five rookies in the entire league this coming season.
Outlook: Castro moved a step in the right direction by shoring up UP’s frontline with the addition of Gomez and Juruena. The three-guard lineup that was just abused on defense last year should be a thing of the past, with Juruena capable of playing the three spot and Gomez joining a rotation that includes veterans Magi Sison, Andrew Marfori and Kevin Astorga at the four and five spots. Additionally, Woody Co and Diony Hipolito can play both forward spots depending on the match ups.
Martin Reyes, Alvin Padilla, Migs De Asis, Miggy Maniego and Mark Lopez form a decent rotation at the wings, while the point guard position will be manned by Mikee Reyes, Braganza and Mike Gamboa.
The key here will be Sison. For so long now, he has tantalized his coaches with what he coould become, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together. Hopefully, his stint with the Smart Gilas developmental team will have boosted his confidence. If the big guy can deliver equally big numbers, and the outside shooting of the guards stabilizes, UP could pull a few surprises.
Overall, though, the Maroons aren’t quite there yet. Too many of the rookies will be relied upon to produce major minutes, and the talent just isn’t deep enough to compete with the elite teams. There’s also the question of chemistry. UP gambled by using Mike Silungan heavily in the summer leagues, even though his stint this year was still up in the air. As of this writing, the eligibility committee has already ruled against Silungan, but university officials are preparing to launch a last-ditch appeal. Personally, though, I think it’s a lost cause, which means the Maroons will be entering the UAAP wars without their go-to guy and leading scorer of the past several months. It will be interesting to see how the team will adjust.
Forecast (Chances): Every year I get the same question from UP peeps: will we make it to the Final Four? And every year I give them the same answer: if you honestly believe that UP is better than at least four other teams, then yes.
This year? Not likely. I’d have to put Ateneo, FEU, and UE clearly ahead of UP. La Salle, Adamson and UST won’t be easy pickings either. The Maroons are good enough to perhaps – and I really mean perhaps – win half their matches against the Archers, Falcons and Tigers, and they’re virtually a lock to sweep NU, but against the top three teams it will be an uphill battle. I see UP finishing this season with a 6-8 record.
(2 votes, average: 4.50 out of 5)
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