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Ateneo de Manila University Blue Eagles
2007 record: 9-5 (tied for 2nd place, lost to De La Salle in the stepladder)
Additions: Ryan Buenafe; Vince Burke; Justin Chua; Zags Gonzaga; Nico Salva
Subtractions: Ford Arao; Ken Barracoso; Zion Laterre; Eman Monfort
Holdovers: Rabeh Al-Hussaini; Bacon Austria; Nonoy Baclao, Mike Baldos; Yuri Escueta; Kirk Long; Jobe Nkemakolam; Jai Reyes; Eric Salamat; Chris Sumalinog; Chris Tiu

Background: The Blue Eagles pretty much had the number 2 seed and the twice-to-beat advantage that comes with it tucked under their metaphorical wings until the already-eliminated NU Bulldogs dealt a serious blow to their season at the Cuneta Astrodome. This forced Ateneo into a rubber match for the twice-to-beat advantage against nemesis De La Salle, a game it promptly lost. Coach Norman Black’s wards never recovered, losing again to the Archers in the deciding Final Four tiff.

Key changes: Ateneo brings in arguably its best recruiting class in school history, or at least its best since 2002, when Macky Escalona, JC Intal and Doug Kramer joined the program. Ryan Buenafe and Nico Salva were Mythical Five members in the junior ranks of the NCAA, while Vince Burke and Justin Chua attracted the attention of big-name programs over the summer.

Ford Arao, Ateneo’s chief gunner down the block, has played out his five-year tenure. His low-post skills and ability to stretch the defense by shooting a 13-foot jumper will be sorely missed. The Loyola faithful are also hoping that Buenafe and co. don’t end up like Ken Barracoso, one of the four players Ateneo won’t have this year. The 2003 UAAP juniors Most Valuable Player opted out of playing in Season 71 to join the corporate world, ending a lackluster four-year career that started out as promising as that of fallen Eagle and ex-Green Archer BJ Manalo.

Outlook: The Eagles ended last season with the DLSU-less Collegiate National Championship in hand, and began 2008 with the Nike Summer League. These two victories should give Ateneo the confidence boost it needs after handing over the UAAP title to UST in 2006, and failing to advance to the finals in 2007, seemingly through its own volition.

Without any bias, this team is built to win. Captain Chris Tiu is still one of the most potent gamebreakers in the UAAP, while Eric Salamat is a legitimate scorer who can bust defenses and shoot from the outside. Buenafe and big man Rabeh Al-Hussaini are excellent complements, with the latter hopefully being able to fulfill his potential this season. Nonoy Baclao is undoubtedly the UAAP’s most hardworking player, and Kirk Long is a nightmare of a matchup.

Ultimate success for the Blue Eagles hinges on two things: the use of their bench and mental toughness. Bacon Austria, Jai Reyes and Salva make Ateneo a deep offensive juggernaut, and that should be tapped. Also, Black and the coaching staff need to push their players to win. A little more emotion to bring the best out of the cagers in times of crisis won’t hurt. There’s a difference between playing to win and playing not to lose, and losses to NU and DLSU seem to point to the latter.

Prognosis: Ten wins – and no losses to the Bulldogs – should be enough for a twice-to-beat advantage. Nine may put the Blue Eagles in another playoff, which would derail any plans of smoothly advancing to the finals.

Ateneo, at the very least, should win the championship. The time is now, and no excuses will be acceptable. A finals appearance won’t be a big deal at all. With its current make-up, even an Eaglet – literally – could sit on the bench and mentor the Blue Eagles to the finals.

Far Eastern University Tamaraws
2007 record: 8-6 (tied for 4th, failed to make the stepladder after losing to UST)
Additions: Robert Kave; Gian Macazo; Mark Romero
Subtractions: Sanny Abaring; JR Gerilla; Arthur Reyes
Holdovers: Marlon Adolfo; Jon Alisbo; Mac Baracael; Mark Barroca; Ron Cabagnot; JR Cawaling; Reil Cervantes; Benedict Fernandez; Jens Knuttel; John Aldrech Ramos; Paul Sanga; Edgar Tanuan

Background: The Tamaraws were consistent in Season 70 despite having an inexperienced lineup that was a result of the overhaul school officials undertook after the debacle the year before. FEU stretched erstwhile defending champions UST to a sudden death matchup for the last slot in the stepladder before losing to the Tigers.

Key changes: FEU is the most experienced team in Season 71 judging from the number of holdovers it has (12). Papua New Guinea Under 19 national team member and center Robert Kave is the most prominent of the neophytes. He’s lanky, long and a decent player as it is.

Gian Macazo and Mark Romero both saw some playing time in the summer leagues, but are still light years away from being the effective players that a team like FEU needs.

Outlook: After a solitary year, FEU is now one of the league’s most cohesive teams. The players know each other very well, and should be able to turn the ball over less, and run the offense more effectively. Over the preseason, the Tams showed a propensity to field in two point guards and three frontliners: a clear intent to run the break and press more often.

Mac Baracael and JR Cawaling are two promising forwards who can both shoot from the outside, slash and play excellent perimeter defense. The problem, though, is that both of them have very similar styles of play. Some problems could result from the fact that your two best players play exactly the same.

This year should be quite different though, as FEU won’t have to rely on Baracael and Cawaling on every possession. There’s Benedict Fernandez, a veteran who thrives under pressure, and the efficient Andy Barroca, who had a stellar preseason. Throw in the much-improved Reil Cervantes and Paul Sanga, and you’ve got four legitimate 8+ point scorers, night in and night out. And let’s not forget big men Kave and even Aldrech Ramos.

Prognosis: At best, the Tamaraws should find themselves in the finals of Season 71. There’s enough talent and bite on this roster, undoubtedly the best since 2005 (which featured five future pros), to get to the Final Four at the bare minimum.

FEU is capable of winning between eight to ten games. Anything less would be a titanic disaster.

Overall prediction:
Elimination round

1 – De La Salle University
2 – Ateneo de Manila University
3 – Far Eastern University
4 – University of the East
5 – University of Santo Tomas
6 – Adamson University
7 – National University
8 – University of the Philippines

Final Four
(1) De La Salle over (4) University of the East
(2) Ateneo de Manila over (3) Far Eastern University

Finals
(1) De La Salle over (2) Ateneo de Manila

Tags: Ateneo-Blue-Eagles, FEU-Tamaraws, Petron, Postgame, UAAP

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